Education · FORTUNE
Fortune #49
Caution
A few observations can tempt you to settle on an answer too soon. Separate what you saw from what you infer, and gather more evidence before stating a conclusion.
QUOTE CARD
A quote for you
“ความจริงจะปรากฏออกมาจากความผิดพลาดได้เร็วกว่าจากความสับสน”
— ฟรานซิส เบคอน
นักปรัชญา รัฐบุรุษ และนักเขียนชาวอังกฤษ ผู้มีบทบาทสำคัญต่อแนวคิดเชิงประจักษ์
- Person
- Francis Bacon
- Source work
- Aphorism 20
- Source text
- Truth will sooner come out from error than from confusion.
STORY & REFLECTION
Nightingale Looks at the Evidence
Florence Nightingale · health data
Florence Nightingale gathered data on soldiers' deaths during the Crimean War. She showed that many died from preventable disease rather than wounds sustained in battle.
Her visual presentation helped others see a pattern that loose impressions obscured. The medical and social history is complex, but the episode shows why a conclusion needs clearly sorted evidence.
A classroom experiment with only a few results may tempt you to conclude too soon. Ask whether the sample is enough, whether another condition matters, and how an observation differs from a guess.
Write one line for what you observed and another for what you infer. If the evidence is thin, say that more testing is needed. Naming uncertainty is part of honest learning.
Reflection
Honest work states uncertainty when evidence is thin.
A small action today
Separate observations from conclusions needing more tests.
A question to reflect on
Which conclusion still needs more evidence?